Asbury Computer Rankings heading into Championship weekend

For the season, my computer is 76.9% at picking the winner (in games involving a top 25 team) while the official spread is at 80.1%. However, my computer beats the spread 53.2% of the time. Over the years, my computer has consistently beat the spread - 51.1% in 2009 and 52.9% in 2010 - so if you want to bet on games, my picks look like a good bet.

My computer is predicting a close SEC championship game, LSU over UGA 28-24. Oregon over UCLA by 15,Wisconsin over Michigan State 31-24, and Virginia Tech over Clemson 33-20.

Rankings headed into Rivalry games

Somehow I don't feel like writing much but these rankings are messed up, at least compared to popular opinion. After 4 teams ranked in the top 7 lost, the SEC has the top 3 spots in the BCS but in my computer, those teams are #1, 4, and 13.

 

So, who's going to win the Thanksgiving week games. Even though I'll be playing bridge at the NABC, I should still be able to see GT vs. UGA, a noon start, which means it'll be 9am in Seattle.

Georgia 31, @Georgia Tech 25

@LSU 31, Arkansas 22

@Nebraska 28, Iowa 27

@South Carolina 31, Clemson 27

Florids State 26, @Florida 23

@North Carolina 33, Duke 20

@Michigan 31, Ohio State 17

Alabama 31, @Auburn 19

@Stanford 34, Notre Dame 27

@Oregon 41, Oregon State 20

@Wake Forest 27, Vanderbilt 25

Virginia Tech 24, @Virginia 21

OkSt and LSU Undisputed #1 and 2

Oklahoma State still tops the Asbury computer ranking. With Boise State and Stanford departing from the ranks of the unbeaten, my computer took a slight divergence from the BCS. Other notable games in week 11 were VT getting off to a slow start but coming up with several big 3rd down passes to beat GT 37-26, Clemson needing a late 4th quarter comeback to beat Wake Forest, and Nebraska topping Penn State during the aftermath of the Penn State scandal.

Michigan, a team that has been overrated by my computer all season, went up 3 spots to #8 despite being only #18 in the BCS. Penn State is similarly overrated, coming in at #14. Texas and Florida State, 23 and 25 in the BCS, meanwhile don't even make my top 30.

Apparently some people have gotten the impression that my computer predicts scores that are too close, but really I only put games that are most interesting on here. However, to show that my computer does indeed expect some blowouts, here goes.

@Alabama 42, Georgia Southern 7
LSU 38, @Mississippi 10
@Oregon 38, USC 27
Kansas State 30, @Texas 28
@Georgia 35, Kentucky 14
@Michigan 28, Nebraska 23
Georgia Tech 35, @Duke 21
@Wake Forest 35, Maryland 17
@Florida State 30, Virginia 19
@Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 20

Week 11 rankings

In baseball, I love pitching duels – those 2-1 and 3-1 ball games where offense is hard to come by – so it only makes sense that I would like low-scoring football games. I enjoyed watching the Alabama-LSU game last Saturday despite having no real interest in who wins. Knowing that every little score mattered and that field position would be important makes it more interesting than say, the Oklahoma State-Kansas State or South Carolina-Arkansas games going on at the same time. So, while my teams of interest were off, LSU and Oklahoma State squeaked by, Arkansas won in a more convincing fashion, and there wasn’t really anything else noteworthy in college football in week 10.

Here’s how my computer has the teams ranked through ten weeks. Not surprisingly, Oklahoma State is #1 again. I only see a couple of screwy things, most notably South Carolina (7-2) is 4 spots ahead of Arkansas (8-1) despite Arkansas beating them by 16 last weekend.

 

This Thursday I’ll be at the Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech game. The winner is almost assured of playing in Charlotte for the ACC championship against Clemson. The official spread is GT by 1, which surprised me. My computer has them at a virtual tie, Virginia Tech by .05.

For the season, my computer has picked the winner correctly 78.3% of the time (in top 25, ACC, and SEC games) and beaten the spread 50.4% of the time. Last year, my computer beat the spread 52.9% of the time. Here are some predictions for this week.

Virginia Tech 26+, @Georgia Tech 26

@Notre Dame 28, Maryland 16

@Florida State 28, Miami 23

@Georgia 33, Auburn 23

@Clemson 37, Wake Forest 23

@Kansas State 35, Texas A&M 31

@Boise State 36, TCU 26

@Stanford 34, Oregon 30

Boise State solidly at #2 in the Asbury Computer

With 4 weeks left in the regular season, there are few things that people can agree on but one is that Alabama and LSU are the two best teams so far. They play each other Saturday night and may well still be ranked 1 and 2 in the polls after that. Computers don't seem to give them as much credit. And it's not just my computer program - it's the computers used in the BCS calculations, too. All but one of those computers puts Oklahoma State at #1.

Georgia and Georgia Tech are now pretty much tied with their 6-2 marks. Georgia Tech beat Clemson 31-17 and played far better than they did in the previous 2 losses to Virginia and Miami. I'm told Georgia looked like the far superior team in the 24-20 win over Florida. At the bridge tournament Saturday, I tried to bet a Clemson fan that they would beat Tech by at least 2 touchdowns but he smartly didn't take me up on that bet.

Boise State's opponents currently have a 31-25, which is awfully good considering Georgia is the only decent team they have played, but hopefully that will drop their strength of schedule down to where it actually should be around 90th to 100th toughest out of 119.

This week there really aren't many interesting games on tap with all 3 ranked ACC teams being off and Georgia pretty much being off. Actually, there are 3 games with top 15 teams playing each other, all at night. Here's what my computer predicts.

@Alabama 24, LSU 23
@Oklahoma State 42, Kansas State 24
@Arkansas 27, South Carolina 26
Notre Dame 32, @Wake Forest 24

Who would win today: UGA or GT?

On the drive up to Athens Saturday morning, I was listening to 790 the Zone and they were having an informal poll of callers guessing who would win between the Bulldogs and Yellow Jackets if they played today on a neutral field. I was quite surprised that nearly everyone picked the Yellow Jackets. I didn't even agree with that. Yes, I thought, and still think, that UGA would and will beat Tech. Both teams struggled a bit this weekend but Georgia managed to survive with a win while Tech couldn't muster up quite enough offense against the Wahoos. Teams who have a bye week before playing Tech continue to have significantly more success than teams who only have 1 week to prepare. It's no coincidence - the extra week helps more against Paul Johnson's abnormal offense than it does against other teams.

Anyway, here are the new rankings, including half of the SEC in the top 25. Oklahoma State is at the top, way ahead of #2 Oklahoma. Michigan State (5-1) beat my previous #1 Michigan but still is at only #31.

My computer doesn't think there will be many good games next week - out of all of the top 25 teams, my computer's spread is at least 6 in every game. But after my tennis league and a nap, I'll be watching Clemson-UNC and then GT-Miami and Auburn-LSU.

Week 8 computer predictions:
@LSU 34, Auburn 17
@Oklahoma 43, Texas Tech 26
Wisconsin 28, @Michigan State 21
@Clemson 33, North Carolina 23
Georgia Tech 33, @Miami 27
Wake Forest 31, @Duke 24
Arkansas 37, @Mississippi 17
@Florida State 34, Maryland 21

Pick Six and Michigan still atop the Asbury college football rankings

This year, the phrase "pick six" has been used a lot more than I have noticed previously. I hadn't really heard anyone use it until a couple of years ago but it has become the standard way to refer to an interception that is taken back for a touchdown. I don't think I like this phrase but maybe it'll grow on me.

Of the 25 games I put into my computer predictor (all top 25 teams plus all ACC and SEC games), my computer only got two wrong and beat the spread on 15 out of 25. The two my computer got wrong were Arkansas over Auburn and Texas A&M over Texas Tech. My computer has always liked Auburn a lot and I guess it was down on A&M after their loss to Arkansas. I'm glad my computer got the WF win over FSU. People don't respect the Demon Deacons football program. I'm not sure I do either.

Georgia comes in at #31, Virginia Tech #34, and Wake Forest #39.

Next week doesn't appear to have many interesting games, which suits me just fine since I will be playing bridge all day Saturday at the Athens sectional, but here are my computer predictions. Something must be wrong - the computer is picking Wake to beat another perennial power in the ACC.

LSU 33, @Tennessee 14
@Oregon 34, Arizona State 29
Michigan 24, @Michigan State 16
Georgia Tech 37, @Virginia 24
@Wake Forest 27, Virginia Tech 26
Georgia 28, @Vanderbilt 17
@Duke 30, Florida State 26
@Auburn 28, Florida 26

Week 5 Rankings have Michigan at the Top

So, my new rankings for this week have Michigan at the top and initially they had unranked Texas Tech at the top, with Alabama and LSU #17 and 18. That all looked really wrong so I spent the last hour and a half looking for glaring errors and I found one - not in the algorithm but a typo or misaligned column. That resulted mostly in the strength of schedule numbers being way off. Anyway, these new rankings for week 5 look pretty good, with the exception of Michigan at the top. Just in time to watch the new episode of Pan Am.

I like that my computer ranks Clemson #4, more respect than the poll voters give them. The one team that my computer seems to have way off is Wisconsin, fresh off a good beating of Nebraska. And of course, I like that Georgia Tech is ranked so high. They seem to now be on a collision course to go into homecoming on October 29 against Clemson, both with 8-0 records. Both the Yellow Jackets and Tigers will be bog favorites in their next 3 games - GT vs. Maryland, Virginia, and Miami; Clemson vs. Boston College, Maryland, and North Carolina). Hopefully College Gameday will be in Atlanta that day.

Some computer predictions for week 6 games:
@LSU 34, Florida 16
Oklahoma 31, @Texas 23
Auburn 31, @Arkansas 30
@Georgia Tech 40, Maryland 23
@Virginia Tech 24, Miami 21
@Wake Forest 28, Florida State 26
Georgia 30, @Tennessee 28
@South Carolina 31, Kentucky 14
@Clemson 35, Boston College 13

Week 3 Rankings

Georgia Tech and Georgia both won big last weekend. Tech set several school and ACC records with their 768 offensive yard performance against Kansas. The ACC fared reasonably well in it's slate of marquee non-conference matchups. Clemson beat Auburn and Miami beat Ohio State soundly but Florida State was outclassed by Oklahoma and West Virginia barely held off Maryland.

This week, my computer rankings look a little more normal as Oklahoma is the clear #1.

A few computer predictions for week 4:
Georgia Tech 31, North Carolina 28
Georgia 33, Mississippi 24
Clemson 30, Florida State 24
Arkansas 31, Alabama 30
West Virginia 28, LSU 26

Final Regular Season Asbury Rankings

The regular season is finished, all the bowl matchups are set, and not surprisingly, my computer still does not have Oregon at the #2 spot as every BCS computer and every human poll has the Ducks. My computer, however, is slowly approaching reality as they moved up to #6 but still behind TCU and 2 teams with 2 losses.

The SEC championship game turned out to be a rout as South Carolina sadly squandered its first and probably last chance at an SEC title for years. The ACC championship game wasn't much closer. Virginia Tech is looking like one of the best teams in the country now, very much unlike the team that started by losing to Boise State and James Madison. I'm as interested in their Bowl game against Stanford as much as any game this winter.

Here are the Asbury rankings headed into bowl season:
1 Auburn 13-0
2 Oklahoma 11-2
3 Ohio State 11-1
4 Arkansas 10-2
5 TCU 12-0
6 Oregon 12-0
7 Boise State 11-1
8 Stanford 11-1
9 Wisconsin 11-1
10 LSU 10-2
11 Virginia Tech 11-2
12 Alabama 9-3
13 Missouri 10-2
14 Oklahoma State 10-2
15 Texas A&M 9-3
16 Michigan State 11-1
17 Nevada 11-1
18 South Carolina 9-4
19 Hawaii 10-3
20 Nebraska 10-3

Conference Championship Matchups Set

Florida State took care of Florida and beat their two biggest rivals - Miami and Florida - in the same year for the first time since 1999. Then they had to wait to see Maryland knock off NC State to get them into the ACC championship game next week against Virginia Tech. Maryland, now 8-4, still should be congratulated on a much improved season from the 2-10 mark in 2009.

In the Big 12, teams had to wait for the BCS standings to come out Sunday evening to find out for sure who would play against Nebraska, who represents the north via winning head-to-head against Missouri, also 10-2 and 6-2 in the conference. In the south division, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M all finished 6-2 in the conference and 1-1 against each other and 4-1 in the division. So the division title then went to the team ranked higher in the BCS standings, which is Oklahoma at #9.

The Big Ten ends with a three-way tie for first - Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all 11-1 and 7-1 in the conference - and no teams within 3 games of them. Actually no other Big Ten team has over 7 wins. It looks like Michigan will be snubbed and miss out on a BCS bowl as Wisconsin, rated the highest in the BCS, will be in Pasadena, and Ohio State, next highest in the BCS, is likely to get an at-large bid to a BCS bowl. Mighigan State looks to be going to the Capital One Bowl against one of the top SEC teams, also on the border of making a BCS game.

The SEC championship game was already set between Auburn and South Carolina. Can Auburn lose to South Carolina and still play for the national championship? They have a substantial lead over 3rd ranked TCU and probably will drop to no worse than 2nd in the computers, but what will the voters do. I am convinced TCU will not go higher than #3 even if Oregon and Auburn both lose. Voters have been keeping them at #3 kind of as a courtesy to keep the undefeated teams at the top but when it comes down to having to pick between a undefeated TCU and a slew of one loss teams - Stanford, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, potentially Auburn or Oregon - voters will pick two of the 1 loss teams to fill spots 1 and 2. In my computer, Auburn has #1 locked up unless they lose badly and Oklahoma wins in which case the Sooners would be #1 and Auburn #2. Personally, I think that if there are two undefeated teams, they should play each other even though Auburn, Oregon, and a few of the other SEC schools are probably better than TCU.

Here are the rankings headed into the conference championship games followed by predictions:

			BCS						Strength of
Rank	Prev	BCS	Computers	W	L		Team	Total Rtg.	Schedule
1	1	1	1	12	0		Auburn	99.378	13
2	6	9	6	10	2		Oklahoma	93.902	1
3	8	7	5	10	2		Arkansas	92.828	2
4	2	3	3	12	0		TCU	90.678	84
5	4	6	9	12	1		Ohio St	90.215	52
6	3	11	14	10	1		Boise St	87.653	57
7	11	2	2	11	0		Oregon	87.335	93
8	9	4	4	11	1		Stanford	85.149	71
9	12	5	7	11	1		Wisconsin	83.008	75
10	5	16	12	9	3		Alabama	82.718	10
11	7	10	7	10	2		LSU	82.304	9
12	10	14	12	10	2		Oklahoma St	81.248	39
13	14	12	10	10	2		Missouri	81.134	38
14	15	18	16	9	3		Texas A&M	79.776	7
15	16	8	11	11	1		Mich St	79.451	60
16	13	15	20	10	2		VT	77.278	66
17	18	17	17	12	1		Nevada	76.742	97
18	17	19	18	9	3		South Carolina	76.551	22
19	22	21	22	9	3		FSU	68.608	41
20	20	13	15	10	2		Nebraska	68.062	86
21	19			9	3		Hawaii	67.961	81
22	25	25	25	10	2		N Illinois	62.940	120
23	26	22	21	8	4		Miss St	62.870	30
24	34	24	24	8	3		West Virginia	61.977	69
25	27			8	3		Navy	61.742	87

Auburn 32, South Carolina 27
Oregon 40, Oregon State 20
Oklahoma 31, Nebraska 24
Virginia Tech 27, Florida State 24

Great Week For My Computer Predictions

In the top 25 games this past weekend, my computer was 12-4 against the spread to bring my season percentage up to 52.2%, the first time it has been over 50%. I picked correctly several of the close games: NC State over UNC, FSU over Maryland, Texas A&M over Nebraska, Oregon State over USC.

It was a somewhat tame day for college football as there were few good games featuring top ranked teams. Auburn, Oregon, TCU were all off. Virginia Tech-Miami was probably the top game of the week and I only got to see part of the 3rd quarter between sessions of bridge, but I was glad to see Virginia Tech pull away and win.

It is still baffling how Oregon is still ranked so low in my computer program. They dropped from #8 to 11 after the bye week but they have clearly played a weak schedule except for Stanford. With games against Arizona and Oregon State to end the season, surely the computer will figure out that they belong higher if the Ducks win those games. Anyway, here's how my top 25 looks now.

Rank	Prev	BCS	W	L		Team	Total Rtg.	strength of schedule
1	1	2	11	0		Auburn	98.652	21
2	2	3	11	0		TCU	97.588	66
3	4	4	10	0		Boise St	92.915	79
4	5	8	11	1		Ohio St	92.423	55
5	3	11	9	2		Alabama	91.260	22
6	11	13	9	2		Oklahoma	90.832	10
7	6	5	10	1		LSU	90.685	17
8	9	12	9	2		Arkansas	89.940	9
9	10	6	10	1		Stanford	88.000	65
10	7	9	10	1		Oklahoma St	86.617	60
11	8	1	10	0		Oregon	86.379	103
12	13	7	10	1		Wisconsin	85.693	74
13	15	16	9	2		VT	85.101	44
14	12	14	9	2		Missouri	84.892	25
15	16	17	8	3		Texas A&M	81.617	7
16	14	10	10	1		Michigan St	80.164	70
17	17	18	8	3		South Carolina	78.130	20
18	19	19	11	1		Nevada	74.506	109
19	22		8	3		Hawaii	73.109	62
20	18	15	9	2		Nebraska	70.150	84
21	21	24	7	4		Iowa	70.020	23
22	27	22	8	3		FSU	68.962	47
23	24	23	8	3		NCST	68.505	46
24	20		7	4		Miami	67.679	11
25	29		9	2		N. Illinois	66.531	119

Georgia and Georgia Tech are #65 and #62 but Georgia is favored to win. Here are the scores to look for in rivalry week:
Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 27
Oregon 37, Arizona 24
Alabama 29, Auburn 28
Arkansas 28, LSU 26
Oklahoma State 32, Oklahoma 31
South Carolina 30, Clemson 20
FSU 27, Florida 24
Texas A&M 31, Texas 17
Virginia Tech 37, Virginia 17

TCU Wins Close Game But Gains Ground on Auburn

With only 2 games remaining for most teams, there are still 4 undefeated teams and there are still some major discrepancies between my computer rankings and the official rankings. Most notably, it is still 10-0 Oregon checking in at #8 and 8-2 Alabama ranked #3. Clearly strength of schedule had some factor in that as Alabama has played the 7th toughest schedule and Oregon only the 102nd toughest schedule so far.

Georgia put up a good fight against Auburn and I was actually rooting for the Dogs. TCU barely held on to beat San Diego State and many voters demoted them after that but my computer did not apparently think that was such a bad performance. Oregon also just squeaked by Cal (15-13, thanks to a missed 2 point conversion and a missed field goal by Cal late in the game) but the pollsters kept them solidly at the top.

I've always thought the computer program was slightly bias toward the SEC but it's now more evident than ever - the SEC has 4 out of the top 9 teams. Now might be a good time to show the conference ratings:
SEC     122.42
Big 12  118.03
Big 10  114.59
Pac 10  101.55
ACC     99.06
Big East 84.02
WAC    79.29
MWC    77.32
CUSA    65.17
MAC     49.48
Sunbelt   33.46

Rank	Prev	BCS	W	L		Team	Total Rtg.	SS Rank
1	1	2	11	0		Auburn	99.565	21
2	3	3	11	0		TCU	97.615	62
3	7	11	8	2		Alabama	92.140	7
4	2	4	9	0		Boise State	89.791	86
5	5	9	10	1		Ohio St	89.720	70
6	4	5	9	1		LSU	87.746	10
7	6	10	9	1		Oklahoma St	86.721	44
8	8	1	10	0		Oregon	85.775	102
9	11	13	8	2		Arkansas	82.922	13
10	9	6	9	1		Stanford	82.177	72
11	14	14	8	2		Oklahoma	81.870	22
12	15	15	8	2		Missouri	81.282	29
13	10	7	9	1		Wisconsin	80.152	80
14	13	12	9	1		Michigan St	79.479	75
15	16	16	8	2		VT	79.150	51
16	25	19	7	3		Texas A&M	76.071	15
17	26	17	7	3		South Carolina	75.044	12
18	19	8	9	1		Nebraska	74.721	96
19	20	18	10	1		Nevada	73.446	99
20	22	24	7	3		Miami	73.155	27
21	12	20	7	3		Iowa	71.705	35
22	24		7	3		Hawaii	70.821	41
23	17	21	7	3		Mississippi St	69.153	30
24	29		7	3		NC St	67.193	53
25	18	22	7	3		Arizona	65.349	43