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Monday, November 7, 2011

Week 11 rankings


In baseball, I love pitching duels – those 2-1 and 3-1 ball games where offense is hard to come by – so it only makes sense that I would like low-scoring football games. I enjoyed watching the Alabama-LSU game last Saturday despite having no real interest in who wins. Knowing that every little score mattered and that field position would be important makes it more interesting than say, the Oklahoma State-Kansas State or South Carolina-Arkansas games going on at the same time. So, while my teams of interest were off, LSU and Oklahoma State squeaked by, Arkansas won in a more convincing fashion, and there wasn’t really anything else noteworthy in college football in week 10.

Here’s how my computer has the teams ranked through ten weeks. Not surprisingly, Oklahoma State is #1 again. I only see a couple of screwy things, most notably South Carolina (7-2) is 4 spots ahead of Arkansas (8-1) despite Arkansas beating them by 16 last weekend.
 
This Thursday I’ll be at the Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech game. The winner is almost assured of playing in Charlotte for the ACC championship against Clemson. The official spread is GT by 1, which surprised me. My computer has them at a virtual tie, Virginia Tech by .05.

For the season, my computer has picked the winner correctly 78.3% of the time (in top 25, ACC, and SEC games) and beaten the spread 50.4% of the time. Last year, my computer beat the spread 52.9% of the time. Here are some predictions for this week.

Virginia Tech 26+, @Georgia Tech 26
@Notre Dame 28, Maryland 16
@Florida State 28, Miami 23
@Georgia 33, Auburn 23
@Clemson 37, Wake Forest 23
@Kansas State 35, Texas A&M 31
@Boise State 36, TCU 26
@Stanford 34, Oregon 30

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