Conference Championship Matchups Set

Florida State took care of Florida and beat their two biggest rivals - Miami and Florida - in the same year for the first time since 1999. Then they had to wait to see Maryland knock off NC State to get them into the ACC championship game next week against Virginia Tech. Maryland, now 8-4, still should be congratulated on a much improved season from the 2-10 mark in 2009.

In the Big 12, teams had to wait for the BCS standings to come out Sunday evening to find out for sure who would play against Nebraska, who represents the north via winning head-to-head against Missouri, also 10-2 and 6-2 in the conference. In the south division, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M all finished 6-2 in the conference and 1-1 against each other and 4-1 in the division. So the division title then went to the team ranked higher in the BCS standings, which is Oklahoma at #9.

The Big Ten ends with a three-way tie for first - Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Michigan State all 11-1 and 7-1 in the conference - and no teams within 3 games of them. Actually no other Big Ten team has over 7 wins. It looks like Michigan will be snubbed and miss out on a BCS bowl as Wisconsin, rated the highest in the BCS, will be in Pasadena, and Ohio State, next highest in the BCS, is likely to get an at-large bid to a BCS bowl. Mighigan State looks to be going to the Capital One Bowl against one of the top SEC teams, also on the border of making a BCS game.

The SEC championship game was already set between Auburn and South Carolina. Can Auburn lose to South Carolina and still play for the national championship? They have a substantial lead over 3rd ranked TCU and probably will drop to no worse than 2nd in the computers, but what will the voters do. I am convinced TCU will not go higher than #3 even if Oregon and Auburn both lose. Voters have been keeping them at #3 kind of as a courtesy to keep the undefeated teams at the top but when it comes down to having to pick between a undefeated TCU and a slew of one loss teams - Stanford, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan State, potentially Auburn or Oregon - voters will pick two of the 1 loss teams to fill spots 1 and 2. In my computer, Auburn has #1 locked up unless they lose badly and Oklahoma wins in which case the Sooners would be #1 and Auburn #2. Personally, I think that if there are two undefeated teams, they should play each other even though Auburn, Oregon, and a few of the other SEC schools are probably better than TCU.

Here are the rankings headed into the conference championship games followed by predictions:

			BCS						Strength of
Rank	Prev	BCS	Computers	W	L		Team	Total Rtg.	Schedule
1	1	1	1	12	0		Auburn	99.378	13
2	6	9	6	10	2		Oklahoma	93.902	1
3	8	7	5	10	2		Arkansas	92.828	2
4	2	3	3	12	0		TCU	90.678	84
5	4	6	9	12	1		Ohio St	90.215	52
6	3	11	14	10	1		Boise St	87.653	57
7	11	2	2	11	0		Oregon	87.335	93
8	9	4	4	11	1		Stanford	85.149	71
9	12	5	7	11	1		Wisconsin	83.008	75
10	5	16	12	9	3		Alabama	82.718	10
11	7	10	7	10	2		LSU	82.304	9
12	10	14	12	10	2		Oklahoma St	81.248	39
13	14	12	10	10	2		Missouri	81.134	38
14	15	18	16	9	3		Texas A&M	79.776	7
15	16	8	11	11	1		Mich St	79.451	60
16	13	15	20	10	2		VT	77.278	66
17	18	17	17	12	1		Nevada	76.742	97
18	17	19	18	9	3		South Carolina	76.551	22
19	22	21	22	9	3		FSU	68.608	41
20	20	13	15	10	2		Nebraska	68.062	86
21	19			9	3		Hawaii	67.961	81
22	25	25	25	10	2		N Illinois	62.940	120
23	26	22	21	8	4		Miss St	62.870	30
24	34	24	24	8	3		West Virginia	61.977	69
25	27			8	3		Navy	61.742	87

Auburn 32, South Carolina 27
Oregon 40, Oregon State 20
Oklahoma 31, Nebraska 24
Virginia Tech 27, Florida State 24

I'm on the way back home after 4 days at the marriott world center in Orlando for the fall national bridge tournament and I must say that I generally dislike Orlando, at least the overall layout of the Disney/touristy part where we were. And it mostly the same reasons I dislike Las Vegas - things are too spread out.

I like tall buildings and being able to walk to dinner and use public transportation. The Marriott is pretty much inaccessible without a car, I never noticed any taxis waiting outside the 2400 room hotel, and the parking lot was at least a ten minute walk from even the closest room. It is a very nice place to hang around and a great venue for a bridge tournament (or pretty much any convention). With things so spread out, traffic is surprisingly bad while in a more urban area, bad traffic is just expected but at least you can go out of the hotel to restaurants and stuff without having to get in a vehicle.

So, now I'm on the way back home where a car really is a necessity, although they are starting a bus service in to work. That still will require driving to the bus station and driving home afterward, thus increasing travel time by 20 minutes, so I'm not really a fan of this implementation of public transit.
Sent from my iPhone

Great Week For My Computer Predictions

In the top 25 games this past weekend, my computer was 12-4 against the spread to bring my season percentage up to 52.2%, the first time it has been over 50%. I picked correctly several of the close games: NC State over UNC, FSU over Maryland, Texas A&M over Nebraska, Oregon State over USC.

It was a somewhat tame day for college football as there were few good games featuring top ranked teams. Auburn, Oregon, TCU were all off. Virginia Tech-Miami was probably the top game of the week and I only got to see part of the 3rd quarter between sessions of bridge, but I was glad to see Virginia Tech pull away and win.

It is still baffling how Oregon is still ranked so low in my computer program. They dropped from #8 to 11 after the bye week but they have clearly played a weak schedule except for Stanford. With games against Arizona and Oregon State to end the season, surely the computer will figure out that they belong higher if the Ducks win those games. Anyway, here's how my top 25 looks now.

Rank	Prev	BCS	W	L		Team	Total Rtg.	strength of schedule
1	1	2	11	0		Auburn	98.652	21
2	2	3	11	0		TCU	97.588	66
3	4	4	10	0		Boise St	92.915	79
4	5	8	11	1		Ohio St	92.423	55
5	3	11	9	2		Alabama	91.260	22
6	11	13	9	2		Oklahoma	90.832	10
7	6	5	10	1		LSU	90.685	17
8	9	12	9	2		Arkansas	89.940	9
9	10	6	10	1		Stanford	88.000	65
10	7	9	10	1		Oklahoma St	86.617	60
11	8	1	10	0		Oregon	86.379	103
12	13	7	10	1		Wisconsin	85.693	74
13	15	16	9	2		VT	85.101	44
14	12	14	9	2		Missouri	84.892	25
15	16	17	8	3		Texas A&M	81.617	7
16	14	10	10	1		Michigan St	80.164	70
17	17	18	8	3		South Carolina	78.130	20
18	19	19	11	1		Nevada	74.506	109
19	22		8	3		Hawaii	73.109	62
20	18	15	9	2		Nebraska	70.150	84
21	21	24	7	4		Iowa	70.020	23
22	27	22	8	3		FSU	68.962	47
23	24	23	8	3		NCST	68.505	46
24	20		7	4		Miami	67.679	11
25	29		9	2		N. Illinois	66.531	119

Georgia and Georgia Tech are #65 and #62 but Georgia is favored to win. Here are the scores to look for in rivalry week:
Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 27
Oregon 37, Arizona 24
Alabama 29, Auburn 28
Arkansas 28, LSU 26
Oklahoma State 32, Oklahoma 31
South Carolina 30, Clemson 20
FSU 27, Florida 24
Texas A&M 31, Texas 17
Virginia Tech 37, Virginia 17

Right of Way Entering a Mall

You know how roads around malls are structured - when you enter from the main road, usually after 100 feet or so, you dead end into a road that goes around the perimeter of the mall. Typically the people entering have the right of way and the people crossing on the perimeter road have a stop sign, at least according to the signage. This makes sense to avoid traffic backing up on to the main road during busy times, but it is a bit counter-intuitive because most other places where one road dead ends into another road that goes straight through, the people on the road going through have the right of way, I guess because it's more natural to slow down when you always have to turn, and the through road is generally bigger. In practice, this configuration at a mall functions more like a 3 way stop.

I've had my car 3 and a half years. It has a few tiny scratches and dents and I still think it's the prettiest car in the world. Someone nearly gave me a reason to restore it to tip-top shape by barreling through a stop sign in the mall parking lot as described above, but my reactions and breaks are too good to get hit.

TCU Wins Close Game But Gains Ground on Auburn

With only 2 games remaining for most teams, there are still 4 undefeated teams and there are still some major discrepancies between my computer rankings and the official rankings. Most notably, it is still 10-0 Oregon checking in at #8 and 8-2 Alabama ranked #3. Clearly strength of schedule had some factor in that as Alabama has played the 7th toughest schedule and Oregon only the 102nd toughest schedule so far.

Georgia put up a good fight against Auburn and I was actually rooting for the Dogs. TCU barely held on to beat San Diego State and many voters demoted them after that but my computer did not apparently think that was such a bad performance. Oregon also just squeaked by Cal (15-13, thanks to a missed 2 point conversion and a missed field goal by Cal late in the game) but the pollsters kept them solidly at the top.

I've always thought the computer program was slightly bias toward the SEC but it's now more evident than ever - the SEC has 4 out of the top 9 teams. Now might be a good time to show the conference ratings:
SEC     122.42
Big 12  118.03
Big 10  114.59
Pac 10  101.55
ACC     99.06
Big East 84.02
WAC    79.29
MWC    77.32
CUSA    65.17
MAC     49.48
Sunbelt   33.46

Rank	Prev	BCS	W	L		Team	Total Rtg.	SS Rank
1	1	2	11	0		Auburn	99.565	21
2	3	3	11	0		TCU	97.615	62
3	7	11	8	2		Alabama	92.140	7
4	2	4	9	0		Boise State	89.791	86
5	5	9	10	1		Ohio St	89.720	70
6	4	5	9	1		LSU	87.746	10
7	6	10	9	1		Oklahoma St	86.721	44
8	8	1	10	0		Oregon	85.775	102
9	11	13	8	2		Arkansas	82.922	13
10	9	6	9	1		Stanford	82.177	72
11	14	14	8	2		Oklahoma	81.870	22
12	15	15	8	2		Missouri	81.282	29
13	10	7	9	1		Wisconsin	80.152	80
14	13	12	9	1		Michigan St	79.479	75
15	16	16	8	2		VT	79.150	51
16	25	19	7	3		Texas A&M	76.071	15
17	26	17	7	3		South Carolina	75.044	12
18	19	8	9	1		Nebraska	74.721	96
19	20	18	10	1		Nevada	73.446	99
20	22	24	7	3		Miami	73.155	27
21	12	20	7	3		Iowa	71.705	35
22	24		7	3		Hawaii	70.821	41
23	17	21	7	3		Mississippi St	69.153	30
24	29		7	3		NC St	67.193	53
25	18	22	7	3		Arizona	65.349	43

9-0 Oregon is #8 in the Asbury Computer?

So, TCU-Utah was s upposed to be the best game last week and it turned into a rout. However, the Alabama-LSU matchup was supposedly a very good game. I didn't get to see any games this weekend except of course Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech. I was pleased with what I saw from Tevin Washington, Nesbitt's replacement after he went down with a broken arm. At the end, he threw an interception in the end zone when a touchdown would have likely sent the game to overtime but he did lead the team to a game tying touchdown a few minutes earlier. That means Virginia Tech is now a huge favorite to win the Coastal Division. They are clearly the best team in the ACC despite the loss to William and Mary. No one seems to be able to take control in the Atlantic division. All 3 teams with 1 conference loss lost last weekend so it is still very much open between NC State, FSU, Maryland, and Clemson.

For the week, my computer was 10-8 against the spread but still only 45.8% for the season.

Here are this week's rankings:

Rank	Prev	BCS	W	L		Team	Total Rtg.	SS Rank
1	1	2	10	0		Auburn	99.479	16
2	8	4	8	0		Boise	93.870	65
3	4	3	10	0		TCU	90.438	86
4	15	5	8	1		LSU	87.276	7
5	10	9	9	1		OhioSt	86.353	73
6	11	10	8	1		OkSt	85.237	45
7	9	12	7	2		Alabama	85.070	13
8	5	1	9	0		Oregon	83.441	110
9	17	6	8	1		Stan	82.127	67
10	14	7	8	1		Wisconsin	80.522	69
11	23	15	7	2		Ark	80.035	11
12	6	13	7	2		Iowa	79.995	40
13	7	11	9	1		michst	78.375	74
14	3	16	7	2		Okla	78.121	19
15	2	17	7	2		Mizzou	76.913	30
16	21	20	7	2		VT	73.645	63
17	19	19	7	2		msu	73.058	44
18	16	18	7	2		Ariz	72.990	43
19	12	8	7	1		Neb	72.481	90
20	25	21	9	1		nevada	72.115	101
21	18	14	8	0		Utah	71.282	119
22	31		6	3		Miami	70.215	18
23	32		6	3		UNC	69.000	8
24	20		7	3		hawaii	68.987	53
25	40	25	6	3		texam	68.284	28